On Wed, Mar 26, 2014 at 8:43 PM, <> wrote:
>
>
> Have you seen any good formula on how many ships or tons of ships passing
> through an area per time?
>
A Formula, not so much. I know there are several databases of said data
within Maritime watch organizations that count through various choke points
such as the Malacca Straights and other specific points. The best ones are
from intelligence services and can be a pain to get into, go figure 8). But
it is a very watched industry, just from the insurance point of view, now
want to talk about who even tighter with their data than Intelligence
Services, try talking to Insurance companies....
>
> Then there is the argument, "there is no such thing as interstellar trade,
> worlds are self-sufficient, starship transport is far more expensive than
> making what you need locally." What I remember of this stuff is that the
> people saying it had analysis good enough to convince themselves, maybe
> even me, but it's beside the point.
>
A lot of people look at the difficulty we have in reaching orbit thus space
and they track that on to Traveller. Shit with Contragrav orbits is a run
to the corner store, the moon is a long car ride. A lot of people don't get
how blindingly fast 1g is, much less multiple Gs.... (Hint 1g is a bit more
than a F-14 off the deck can manage, and if you had ever been knocked down
by one on the cat you would viscerally understand)
>
> Traveller is based on classic SF/Space Op notions of interstellar trade.
> Without that, it's not Traveller, so we have to agree to be "unrealistic."
> However, if our starting point is "unrealistic," what metrics do we use to
> calculate how much is there? We're at assertions. Maybe the best assertion
> to start with is the trade tables. But those don't really get at it, they
> tell you how many cargoes come available how often for YOUR ship, not an
> entire ecosystem of N ships, of which yours is only one of many (...how
> many?).
>
This is another place where we need to look at the real world, the 1st part
is setting metrics, Look at what gets shipped by air, then look at what
gets shipped by ship. With those two modes in your head now go back to what
was shipped by sail/coal powered steam. The answer mostly is when you
compare the front two models with the later you find the same range of
products where shipped, in the latter case the Clipper ships (the Jet
airliners of their day) shipped the stuff that need to be to its market
fast and the slower coal fired steamers tended to get the bulk freight and
cargos. But this is from the shippers point of view and trade model.
In Traveller all Cargo and Freight is at the dock and shipped on Tramp
shipping, where each ship pulled up and acquired the best cargo/freight it
can base on how good said ships Purser and/or Captain is at find and
haggling a deal. which is fine if the model you are playing is small ships
in the colonial trade. The big Lines use the previous model with full time
Agents/Brokers in every port they trade in.
This all brings us back to the population model, in which the average
settlement with a Port is pop 5, say generally 50,000 people with a diverse
requirement for goods, some of which they can get of the big freighter that
stops by once or twice a year to take their bulk products away, but the
rest is supplied by that irregular Tramp trade that just happens along
trying to make a honest buck.
With all that if you fixate on the Plane vs. Ship model, it all looks
pretty bleak, and you get the nay-sayers demanding their own tunnel vision
view is all that that can exist. (Hint get them started on Banking for fun)
>
> And also the perpetual flame war about how piracy in Traveller is
> impossible, there's not enough shipping to prey on to make a living. But
> Traveller has explicitly defined "pirate ships" in it, so we're back to
> the tropes and assertions we can't live without.
>
Traveller unfortunately gave us a piss poor Pirate Ship based off of all
the bright shiny movies of how it "works" all the time. Both historically
and currently Piracy has been about getting you small fast boat/ship as
close to your target as you can so you can effect a boarding, then the fun
begins. Really it is a bunch of maybe drunk guys (if you ever have dealt
with local smallcraft crews in Southeast Asia you would completely
understand this part), in small stealthy boats, armed with a collection of
AKs and machetes doing their best to get on board to Boat-Jack you.
>
> That's another reason I'd like to find that article I mentioned, because I
> think they did get into saying how much of overall shipping capacity was
> all of the chaff and dross of small craft which was allowed for before you
> get useable big warship tonnage. I remember it being pretty rigorous.
>
Its the little stuff that is really interesting, there are families
operation 100 ft dhows now who can trace their family back nearly 1000
years in the same trade routes. Nothing is more amusing that when you see
this well used dhow with 20 big screen TVs lashed to the deck under tarps.
And when you talk to the crew they Loaded up in Singapore and you are
talking to them just outside the Persian Gulf. And these guys do this trip
every year, with side trips down the east coast of Africa.
> Yes, I mentioned TCS in the next para after the one you cited, but IIRC it
> only gives tons of maximum output of shipbuilding per world, which is a
> theoretical maximum, but we have to factor in % of production for military
> vs. civilian, starships vs. local rowboats, approximate ship lifespan,
> etc., and based on 5FW and the article I mentioned they had done that
> before.
>
Yah, I would like to know what rules of thumb they where using too....
>
> >> Starships
> >> are just cooler than not starships, and I thought the Covenanter
>
> > I never understood this point of view, Smallcraft with their ability to
> have burn their way across a system with a combats load of fuel. TNE
> made
> > this even more so. Small craft and SDB really become the big boys they
> should always have been.
>
> I am justly chastised! :-) I guess I'm just a typical fanboy, mooning over
> glamorous starships.
>
If I haven't mentioned it I was one of last of my generation39;s Brown Water
Navy sailors. So I have a certain love for boats.
>
> >> Finally, and this is a pure TNEism, Marc has repudiated this elsewhere,
> TNE allows jump capable craft smaller than 100 tons. I am honestly of
> not
> >> convinced of J-torps, but I do know that I want you to be able to built
> little couriers or Xboats down around 50-80 tons and not 100.
> > A 50 dton Couriers are still damn big ships. I am often surprised at how
> little comprehension there is about the size of Traveller ships among
> Traveller Fans.
>
> Sure, but 50 is still less than 100, and when you're trying to carry
> couriers aboard warships every savings helps.
>
Don't get me wrong I loved the idea of 50 dton Jump cutter. It should be
the most common critter out there just in the form of a smallish courier,
Heck smaller than that is cool by me, though I can see a number of people
twitching at the idea of spending a week in a 20 ton Jump capable Gig. (Now
that is a design I need to look at) (I can hear the Groans of some
admiral's darling when he finds out that he gets to catch up to the fleet
riding 3rd seat in the courier, I also see the crew breaking out the beans
and garlic if he is a pain....).
--
Evyn
>
>
> Have you seen any good formula on how many ships or tons of ships passing
> through an area per time?
>
A Formula, not so much. I know there are several databases of said data
within Maritime watch organizations that count through various choke points
such as the Malacca Straights and other specific points. The best ones are
from intelligence services and can be a pain to get into, go figure 8). But
it is a very watched industry, just from the insurance point of view, now
want to talk about who even tighter with their data than Intelligence
Services, try talking to Insurance companies....
>
> Then there is the argument, "there is no such thing as interstellar trade,
> worlds are self-sufficient, starship transport is far more expensive than
> making what you need locally." What I remember of this stuff is that the
> people saying it had analysis good enough to convince themselves, maybe
> even me, but it's beside the point.
>
A lot of people look at the difficulty we have in reaching orbit thus space
and they track that on to Traveller. Shit with Contragrav orbits is a run
to the corner store, the moon is a long car ride. A lot of people don't get
how blindingly fast 1g is, much less multiple Gs.... (Hint 1g is a bit more
than a F-14 off the deck can manage, and if you had ever been knocked down
by one on the cat you would viscerally understand)
>
> Traveller is based on classic SF/Space Op notions of interstellar trade.
> Without that, it's not Traveller, so we have to agree to be "unrealistic."
> However, if our starting point is "unrealistic," what metrics do we use to
> calculate how much is there? We're at assertions. Maybe the best assertion
> to start with is the trade tables. But those don't really get at it, they
> tell you how many cargoes come available how often for YOUR ship, not an
> entire ecosystem of N ships, of which yours is only one of many (...how
> many?).
>
This is another place where we need to look at the real world, the 1st part
is setting metrics, Look at what gets shipped by air, then look at what
gets shipped by ship. With those two modes in your head now go back to what
was shipped by sail/coal powered steam. The answer mostly is when you
compare the front two models with the later you find the same range of
products where shipped, in the latter case the Clipper ships (the Jet
airliners of their day) shipped the stuff that need to be to its market
fast and the slower coal fired steamers tended to get the bulk freight and
cargos. But this is from the shippers point of view and trade model.
In Traveller all Cargo and Freight is at the dock and shipped on Tramp
shipping, where each ship pulled up and acquired the best cargo/freight it
can base on how good said ships Purser and/or Captain is at find and
haggling a deal. which is fine if the model you are playing is small ships
in the colonial trade. The big Lines use the previous model with full time
Agents/Brokers in every port they trade in.
This all brings us back to the population model, in which the average
settlement with a Port is pop 5, say generally 50,000 people with a diverse
requirement for goods, some of which they can get of the big freighter that
stops by once or twice a year to take their bulk products away, but the
rest is supplied by that irregular Tramp trade that just happens along
trying to make a honest buck.
With all that if you fixate on the Plane vs. Ship model, it all looks
pretty bleak, and you get the nay-sayers demanding their own tunnel vision
view is all that that can exist. (Hint get them started on Banking for fun)
>
> And also the perpetual flame war about how piracy in Traveller is
> impossible, there's not enough shipping to prey on to make a living. But
> Traveller has explicitly defined "pirate ships" in it, so we're back to
> the tropes and assertions we can't live without.
>
Traveller unfortunately gave us a piss poor Pirate Ship based off of all
the bright shiny movies of how it "works" all the time. Both historically
and currently Piracy has been about getting you small fast boat/ship as
close to your target as you can so you can effect a boarding, then the fun
begins. Really it is a bunch of maybe drunk guys (if you ever have dealt
with local smallcraft crews in Southeast Asia you would completely
understand this part), in small stealthy boats, armed with a collection of
AKs and machetes doing their best to get on board to Boat-Jack you.
>
> That's another reason I'd like to find that article I mentioned, because I
> think they did get into saying how much of overall shipping capacity was
> all of the chaff and dross of small craft which was allowed for before you
> get useable big warship tonnage. I remember it being pretty rigorous.
>
Its the little stuff that is really interesting, there are families
operation 100 ft dhows now who can trace their family back nearly 1000
years in the same trade routes. Nothing is more amusing that when you see
this well used dhow with 20 big screen TVs lashed to the deck under tarps.
And when you talk to the crew they Loaded up in Singapore and you are
talking to them just outside the Persian Gulf. And these guys do this trip
every year, with side trips down the east coast of Africa.
> Yes, I mentioned TCS in the next para after the one you cited, but IIRC it
> only gives tons of maximum output of shipbuilding per world, which is a
> theoretical maximum, but we have to factor in % of production for military
> vs. civilian, starships vs. local rowboats, approximate ship lifespan,
> etc., and based on 5FW and the article I mentioned they had done that
> before.
>
Yah, I would like to know what rules of thumb they where using too....
>
> >> Starships
> >> are just cooler than not starships, and I thought the Covenanter
>
> > I never understood this point of view, Smallcraft with their ability to
> have burn their way across a system with a combats load of fuel. TNE
> made
> > this even more so. Small craft and SDB really become the big boys they
> should always have been.
>
> I am justly chastised! :-) I guess I'm just a typical fanboy, mooning over
> glamorous starships.
>
If I haven't mentioned it I was one of last of my generation39;s Brown Water
Navy sailors. So I have a certain love for boats.
>
> >> Finally, and this is a pure TNEism, Marc has repudiated this elsewhere,
> TNE allows jump capable craft smaller than 100 tons. I am honestly of
> not
> >> convinced of J-torps, but I do know that I want you to be able to built
> little couriers or Xboats down around 50-80 tons and not 100.
> > A 50 dton Couriers are still damn big ships. I am often surprised at how
> little comprehension there is about the size of Traveller ships among
> Traveller Fans.
>
> Sure, but 50 is still less than 100, and when you're trying to carry
> couriers aboard warships every savings helps.
>
Don't get me wrong I loved the idea of 50 dton Jump cutter. It should be
the most common critter out there just in the form of a smallish courier,
Heck smaller than that is cool by me, though I can see a number of people
twitching at the idea of spending a week in a 20 ton Jump capable Gig. (Now
that is a design I need to look at) (I can hear the Groans of some
admiral's darling when he finds out that he gets to catch up to the fleet
riding 3rd seat in the courier, I also see the crew breaking out the beans
and garlic if he is a pain....).
--
Evyn